Mark Kavanagh would win tomorrow's Victoria Derby at Flemington??

If such a thing as poetic justice existed in horse racing, then Mark Kavanagh would win tomorrow's Victoria Derby at Flemington.

BetRepublic through its free horse racing tips, giving a clue to all the horse racing betting people about the winning chances of Mark Kavanagh at Victoria Derby. Kavanagh saddles up the favourite, Shamoline Warrior, in the $1.5 million event in a bid to extract some glory from a spring carnival that has yet to deliver all he had hoped.

In the past month the trainer has lost stable stars Maldivian and Cats Whisker to injury, and last week he watched his champion Whobegotyou go under in the Cox Plate as a short-priced favourite.

Whobegotyou ran second in last year's Derby behind Rebel Raider, which, ironically, is the half-brother to Shamoline Warrior which bolted in the Norman Robinson Stakes (2,000m) a fortnight ago. Kavanagh told this morning's Derby media conference that he did not know whether Shamoline Warrior can stay the distance.

"It's a pretty strong Derby. There's a rap on a lot of horses and the 2,500 metres is certainly the key to the whole race," he said. "We have set him specifically for this race and he's done everything to please us along the way. There's been no hiccups."

Rebel Raider had not won his Derby when Kavanagh spent his budget to buy Shamoline Warrior for a syndicate of owners who had given him only $60,000. "At the time [Shamoline Warrior] was a bit of an ugly duckling but he's certainly a swan now," Kavanagh said.

"There's no doubt this race is a maker of champions. He might have cost $400,000 or $500,000 [if Rebel Raider been a Derby winner then]."

Rain forecast

Shamoline Warrior has three wins and a second on dead tracks and the prospect of further rain in Melbourne should not dent his chances.Derby day racegoers have been told to prepare for anything as inclement weather settles on the city.

A spokesman for the Weather Bureau says storms and showers are forecast for Melbourne tonight and again tomorrow. He says it is hit and miss whether Flemington will see much rain, which would take the edge off the track after a week of warm and dry conditions.

Track manager Mick Goodie says Flemington was rated a dead 4 and that little rain had been registered this morning. For more horse racing betting picks & are available at BetRepublic Horse racing Betting tips.

Suroor pleased with Delegator and Mastery

SAEED BIN SUROOR has issued an upbeat bulletin on Delegator and Mastery as they continue their preparation for the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita next month.

Delegator is an intended starter in the Breeders' Cup Mile, along with stablemate Gladiatorus, and is back working well after disappointing in the Sony-sponsored Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

"He worked very well a few days ago and came back very good from his last race," Bin Suroor said on At The Races.

"I thought he'd be winning [the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes] or coming somewhere close.

"He's always healthy and very honest and I think the track [at Santa Anita] will really suit him."

Ladbrokes St Leger victor Mastery, meanwhile, heads for the Marathon with Bin Suroor feeling that the Classic-winning son of Sulamani is still on the upgrade.

He said: "A mile six is perfect for him. He's come back very well [after the St Leger] and is improving all the time."

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Fakenham Racing Tips

Best bets:

nap- 15.45: BUSKER ROYAL
e/w- 16.20: CHALICE WELCOME

14.00
This opening event reverted to type last year as five-year-old North Walk became the fourth vintage winner in the last five years. The pick of the quartet of five-year-olds on this occasion should prove to be PETROGLYPH and PENNYROCK, whilst ROYALTEA and DIRECTOR'S CHAIR complete my mix against the field.

14.35
The world and his dog are aware that COOL ROXY (winner of this race on each of the last two occasions) is the old kid on the block here as the Environment Friend gelding has gained no less than eleven of his twelve successes at this venue. Only cynical racegoers will back against Chris Honour's mount though if the twelve-year-old is to be beaten, SPROSSER in the likeliest suspect on these terms.

15.10
Trainers are baffling yours truly again as this contest has been won by five and six-year-olds for the last seven years, yet only the moderate Renege The Joker represents the two vintages on this occasion. Upwards and onwards in positive mode however by suggesting that SHUT THE BAR (perish the thought) and BAILY STORM should fight out the finish.

15.45
All three favourites have been beaten to date via two renewals which attracted a total of nine runners. That said, two 5/2 shots have scored to date whereby the bookmakers have not had things all their own way. Nicky Henderson saddled a popular winner the other day as one of my favourite trainers returned from his well documented exile and BUSKER ROYAL should go close to winning. Barry Geraghty takes the ride, just as the Irish pilot did last year when the selection scored on his seasonal debut in a better race than this at Ascot. ELEAZAR is a worthy opponent and no mistake.

16:20
Six-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals yet just one vintage representative has been declared, namely CHALICE WELCOME. Alex Merriam's mount also qualifies via the weight stats as eight of the last nine gold medallists carried 11-3 or less, whereby SAGARICH and SIR QUIGLEY are offered up as speculative types to include in toteplacepot wagers.

16.50
Whichever way you look at this disappointuing event, the contender are horses that flatter to deceive on a regular basis and I can only offer the tentative trio of CHAPEL FLOWERS. TOI EXPRESS and FEELING PECKISH against the field.

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Horse Racing Picks: Howard Johnson Hopes For Tidal Revival

In latest horse racing picks, Howard Johnson hopes a breathing operation can help Tidal Bay return to his best at Aintree on Saturday.

His stable star runs in the tote ten to follow Old Roan Chase and the trainer is expecting a big run.

"We are looking forward to getting Tidal Bay back on the racecourse. We had him hobdayed through the summer and we are hoping that has tidied him up. I would say at the minute that he will probably be our standard bearer this year," said Johnson with sports betting community.

"He jumped a few fences indoors on Monday morning and looked good. He'll school outdoors if it keeps drizzling like it is now and he will have a piece of work with Denis O'Regan up, probably on Tuesday. If I'm happy and the ground is alright, we'll go to Aintree.

"He is training well and we'll weigh him on Wednesday. He actually looks like he's carrying a lot more condition this year, which is good because he always looks Gorky."

Johnson is pleased with the form of his stable at present, which boasts a 33% strike rate this month, with nine wins from 27 runners.

He said: "The horses in horse racing betting generally are alright, I'm happy enough with them, it's just that we haven't been able to get on the grass yet. The ground has been too firm and the racecourses don't help us trainers in the north east because they won't let us work our horses on the tracks."

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